The real battle to repeal the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) is one between Russia, China, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), UN, EU, Germany, France and UK on one side and the United States and “Israel” on the other. For Russia and China, two countries that have healthy relations with Iran, there exists no motivation to scapegoat Iran for doing things that the IAEA and UN say it is not doing. In this case, the IAEA and UN both say that Iran is complying with every letter of the 2015 JCPOA and therefore the deal is in good shape according to its Chinese and Russian parties. Perhaps unusually based on traditional geopolitical divides (or the perception thereof), the EU as a whole and the three individual EU signatories of the JCPOA: France, Germany and the UK also agree with the Sino-Russia conclusion that Iran is complying with the JCPOA and therefore the deal should be preserved.
On the other side, there is a Trump administration that is dead set against the deal for one petty domestic reason and one dangerous but predictable geopolitical reason. Because the JCPOA was hailed and in certain quarters of the US and continues to be hailed as a great triumph for Barack Obama, Donald Trump wants to scrap the deal due to his open hatred of just about anything to do with his predecessor. Trump said as much even before anyone thought he would win the 2016 US election. A more worrying reality is that because “Israel” is opposed to anything that could prevent a war on Iran, including and especially the JCPOA, the Tel Aviv regime has worked tirelessly to promote its anti-Iran narrative in the Trump White House and to this end the overtly pro-Zionist Trump administration has had no problems following the “Israeli” line thus far.
In this sense the speech that “Israeli” regime leader Benjamin Netanyahu just gave will have no real effect on a would-be US decision to drop the JCPOA or even go to war with Iran, because such things have either already been decided behind closed doors or are being argued behind close doors in the Russia, China, EU, UK, France, Germany vs. USA and “Israel” format. Because Russia and China are the only governments which are a party to the deal that have equally good relations with both Iran and “Israel”, the phone call that President Putin just had with President Macron could be of vital importance as Putin could be a go-between in respect of Iran and “Israel”. In this sense, Putin can accurately convey the feelings of Tehran and Tel Aviv to the French President who in turn could then communicate them to his apparently ‘super best friend’ Donald Trump.
Because of this, Netanyahu’s speech was merely grandstanding which verges on desperation as when it comes to the JCPOA, soft power is far less relevant than it would be over a more exciting issue. The populations of Europe are largely indifferent to Iran, while the population of the US generally has negative feelings about Iran. This will not change. What is telling though is that while Trump seems keen to play a game of brinkmanship with Iran, many in the American Democratic Party do not share Trump’s anti-Iranian sentiments. While every major politician in the US has to be pro-“Israel” and anti-Iranian, many Congressmen in Obama’s party would prefer to the Iranian issue to be treated as a sleeping dog – one with a big shiny collar that serves as a testament to the fat that Obama stopped Iran from “getting the bomb”.
Thus, whatever is going to happen and whatever is being discussed behind closed doors will not change because of what the “Israeli” regime leader said in his public speech. The fate of the JCPOA is being discussed behind closed doors and even this is not relevant if Donald Trump has already made up his mind which he may well have done a long time ago.